Sep 29, 2002


gambler erroneously thinks that an apparentlyhighly improbable outcome he currently observes is made more probable if there have been many trials preceding it.a gambler enter the roon as a roll is about ot be made. "The kibitzer asks"Is this the 1st roll of the dice or have we made others earlier tonight?"the gambler says"can I wait until I see how this roll comes out before I answer? The roll is a double 6,gambler foolishly says"there have been quite a few rolls so far".[Hacking 1987]